Robert Kennedy Jr., recently appointed United States Secretary of Health and Human Services, sparked a lively controversy by announcing the launch of a major investigation into the causes of autism. He has promised to identify the factors behind what he calls the “autism epidemic” by September. His statement was immediately welcomed by President Donald Trump, who shares his belief that certain vaccines may be involved in the dramatic increase in cases.
The number of autism diagnoses has exploded in just a few decades, from 1 in 10,000 cases in the 1980s to 1 in 31 today, an estimated increase of 32,158%. Such progress, Kennedy argues, cannot be the result of chance or better detection, but rather reveals the existence of important environmental causes. He says a large-scale international study is underway, mobilizing hundreds of scientists, and its results are scheduled to be published in September.
Kennedy argues that the turning point occurred in 1989, the year identified by the EPA as the starting point of the epidemic. According to him, this date coincides with an explosion in the vaccination schedule. To investigate this possible connection, the CDC commissioned Belgian epidemiologist Thomas Verstraeten, who analyzed data from the largest vaccine database in the United States. His initial study reportedly showed a 1,135% increase in the risk of being diagnosed with autism among children vaccinated against hepatitis B within the first 30 days of life, or a relative risk of 11.35%. Kennedy points out that in public health, a relative risk of 2 is already considered strong evidence of causation. By comparison, the link between smoking and lung cancer is associated with a 10-year risk.
